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Jason Myers
1. & 2. Shipments by Sector
Canada’s primary metals, machinery, electrical equipment, food products, clothing and miscellaneous manufacturing sectors were the only industries to record shipments growth between October 2005 and October 2006. The greatest declines in shipments value occurred in the transportation equipment, wood products and textile mill sectors.
3. Manufacturing Shipments
The monthly value of goods produced and shipped by Canadian manufacturers fell 0.1% in October 2006 to $47.7 billion, the lowest level since December 2004. This decline was due to weakness in petroleum prices and lower shipments volume in both the food and transportation equipment sectors. Taking price fluctuations into account, shipments volume was down 0.6 per cent. Manufacturing shipments are expected to decline by a further 4% this year.
4. Shipments by Province
Manufacturing shipments across Canada fell by 5.2% between October 2005 and October 2006. Over that same period, shipments were down by 9.6% in Ontario, by almost 25% in New Brunswick and by 2.4% in Alberta (thanks to lower petroleum prices). Shipments performance was strongest in Manitoba, Quebec, BC and PEI.
New and Unfilled Orders
The good news is both new and unfilled orders rose marginally last October, but they remain well below levels posted the previous year. New orders were 6.1% and unfilled orders 3.6% lower year-over-year basis pointing to further weakness in shipments performance, at least during the first half of this year.
GDP by Industry
The Canadian economy stalled out early in the fourth quarter of 2006. Manufacturing, agriculture and forestry have been the weakest sectors over the past year. In October, after accounting for price changes, manufacturing production was down 4.8%, while the economy as a whole had grown only 1.6% year-over-year. With the US economy likely to weaken over the year ahead, manufacturing production is expected to decline by a further 3% while Canada’s general rate of economic growth will run around 0.8 per cent.
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